La crescita economica nel 2024 sarà sensibilmente inferiore alla media pluriennale, per poi accelerare moderatamente nel 2025: è questa, in estrema sintesi, la previsione della Segreteria di Stato dell’economia riguardo alla congiuntura elvetica.
Il prodotto interno lordo PIL dovrebbe salire dell’1,6% l’anno in corso e dell’1,2% nei dodici mesi successivi, emerge dalle tabelle pubblicate giovedì dagli economisti della Confederazione. Quelli indicati sono però i dati lordi: corretto dall’impatto degli eventi sportivi, che incidono sensibilmente perché in Svizzera hanno sede le ricchissime federazioni internazionali che incamerano miliardi con i diritti di diffusioni dei loro tornei, il PIL progredirà dell’1,2% nel 2024 e dell’1,6% nel 2025, grazie a una leggera ripresa dell’export verso i partner europei attualmente in difficoltà.
Le indicazioni relative a quest’anno ricalcano perfettamente quelle della precedente valutazione, che risale a giugno. Le stime riguardo ai dodici mesi successivi sono invece lievemente cambiate: erano infatti dell’1,3% (lordo) e dell’1,7% (al netto degli eventi sportivi).
La stima sull’inflazione viene invece corretta al ribasso: l’aumento dei prezzi si attesterà all’1,2% nel 2024 e allo 0,7% nel 2025 (contro 1,4% e 1,1% pronosticati tre mesi or sono); il tasso di disoccupazione sarà rispettivamente al 2,4% e al 2,6% (previsioni confermate).
Notiziario
Notiziario 19.09.2024, 10:00
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